Exchange Rate Fluctuations are Increasingly A Factor in Business
May 09, 2025
Recently, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized briefly amid depreciation pressure, but the expectation of depreciation has not dissipated. In recent years, the support of traditional trade surpluses for the exchange rate has weakened, and the continued weakness of the RMB under the background of wide interest rate differentials is still the baseline. However, factors that are favorable to the appreciation of the RMB are accumulating: the weakening of the US economy may accelerate the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the interest rate differential between China and the United States will converge; factors such as the stabilization and recovery of the Chinese economy, industrial upgrading, and the accumulation of foreign currency positions by enterprises are expected to reshape the supply and demand pattern of the foreign exchange market. Under the right opportunity, the speed and space of RMB appreciation may exceed expectations, but in the short term, we still need to be vigilant about the uncertainties brought about by the impact of US tariffs.
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